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POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY
Last post 04-25-2008 12:09 AM by Centaur. 9 replies.
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  • 12-21-2007 06:42 AM

    POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    I THOUGHT THIS SITE WOULD BE FULL OF QUESTIONS AND CONJECTURES ON THE REPURCUSSIONS IF ANY OF THE THE POSSIBLE 1-75 CHANCE OF A ASTEROID? OR OTHER IMPACTING  MARS  IF THERE IS AN IMPACT, HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE A SHOCK WAVE TO REACH EARTH?  IF ANY...

     

    BILLY BOY

  • 12-21-2007 07:51 AM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    I haven't heard about the possible impact yet.  Is there a source to check that out?  The chances of any martian impact generating enough force to effect Earth are negligable.  However, it is possible for debris ejected into space by the impact to reach the Earth as meteorites.  There have been a number of metorites found that are martian in origin.  I have no clue as to how long it would take for that debris to reach the Earth.  My best guess is that it could take a very, very long time, perhaps thousands or even millions of years before Earth's orbit would cross the expanding martian debris field.  That is just a guess.  There are other members of the forums who are much better qualified to answer than I.

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  • 12-21-2007 08:31 AM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    I did find an article on the asteroid you are asking about.  It's a periodic visitor to the red planet about the size of a cruise ship.  A direct hit would blast out a crater about a mile wide in the martian surface.  As cosmic collisions go that's pretty minor.  No threat to Earth, but we could get some cool pictures from Mars orbiting satellites.

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  • 12-21-2007 09:38 AM In reply to

    • Uranut
    • Joined on 12-05-2003
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    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

     Thanks for the tip, Billy Boy. I did a little hunting and found some articles. Anyone interested can just search on '2007 wd5'.

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    Michael



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  • 12-21-2007 10:56 AM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    There's data on 2007 WD5, including an orbital diagram, at http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20WD5;orb=1

    Any possible impact may not be visible from Earth except by large professional telescopes but the Martian orbiters would certainly be able to image the results. 

    Dave Mitsky

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  • 12-21-2007 12:11 PM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    Thanks for the info. There was a one paragraph article in my local newspaper this morning that had me thinking about a Shoemaker/Levy 9 type of impact. LOL. Too bad, but I guess twice in a lifetime would be a bit too greedy.

  • 12-21-2007 05:46 PM In reply to

    • Red1530
    • Joined on 09-27-2006
    • New York State
    • Posts 170

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    I just posted about this in the Solar System section and I hope if their is an impact I can see it in a 60mm telescope.

  • 12-21-2007 07:28 PM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    zachsdad:

    I haven't heard about the possible impact yet.  Is there a source to check that out?  The chances of any martian impact generating enough force to effect Earth are negligable.  However, it is possible for debris ejected into space by the impact to reach the Earth as meteorites.  There have been a number of metorites found that are martian in origin.  I have no clue as to how long it would take for that debris to reach the Earth.  My best guess is that it could take a very, very long time, perhaps thousands or even millions of years before Earth's orbit would cross the expanding martian debris field.  That is just a guess.  There are other members of the forums who are much better qualified to answer than I.

    Orbital simulations show times of from one million years to a few dozen million years for a soft-ball-sized rock to travel from Mars to Earth orbit after being blasted off the Martian surface by an impact. You start with the mass/velocity parameters given the escape velocity from the Martian surface and the size and velocity of the impactor, factor in not only the distance but also the orbital resonances likely to be encountered enroute, then end up with a very wide error bar due to the guesstimations required.

    On the other hand, meteoriticists measure cosmic-ray tracks in crystals in meteorites whose vaporization spectra match that of gases measured by Viking spacecraft experiments. These tracks can give the amount of time the meteorite was exposed to the vacuum of space (atmospheres even as thin as those of Mars can block most of the cosmic ray bombardment, so the theory is that the number of -- and penetration level of -- cosmic ray tracks is an indicator of the time the rock spent "in space"). This is called the exposure age. For calibration, they use cosmic ray track counts from quartz crystals in surface rocks brought back from the Moon by Apollo astronauts. (Incidentally, this is a "smoking gun" proof that the rocks are not of terrestrial origin.) When you take the exposure ages of the handful of "known" Martian meteorites, you get transit time estimates of from 3 million to 12 million years.

    About 10 meteorites have been positively confirmed as having the same gas concentrations as those in the Viking samples. All but one of these are of the same petrological (rock) type, so it is often assumed that any meteorite of that rock type is also a Martian sample (which is how so many "Rocks from Mars!" end up on eBay, for example). There are something like four dozen meteorites that meteoriticists identify as Martian with any confidence.

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  • 12-23-2007 12:26 AM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    The latest reports on 2007 WD5  indicate the minimum orbital intersection distance to be approximately 1800 miles to the center of Mars. Mars is 2200 miles in diameter, leaving a distance of only 700 miles between the two. That's considered a "close call" in astronomical terms.

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  • 04-25-2008 12:09 AM In reply to

    Re: POSSIBLE MARTIAN IMPACT IN JANUARY

    billyboy:

    I THOUGHT THIS SITE WOULD BE FULL OF QUESTIONS AND CONJECTURES ON THE REPURCUSSIONS IF ANY OF THE THE POSSIBLE 1-75 CHANCE OF A ASTEROID? OR OTHER IMPACTING  MARS  IF THERE IS AN IMPACT, HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE A SHOCK WAVE TO REACH EARTH?  IF ANY...

    Welcome to the discussion group, BillyBoy, although there is no need to SHOUT.

    There is virtually no air between Earth and Mars, therefore no shock wave.  However, it's possible that some debris from the crash could eventually land on Earth as meteorites in a few million years.

     

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