The Orionids can be variable* but I’ve seen nothing suggesting a higher than average ZHR for this year’s Orionids. In fact, the shower is not even mentioned in the October issue of Sky & Telescope or on the International Meteor Organization’s 2013 shower calendar.
A disappointing quarter ends the year, with all the stronger annual showers troubled by bright moonlight for their maxima.
Astronomy Magazine downplays the 2013 Orionids on page 37 of the October issue.
Even a waning crescent Moon can reduce the count by a fair amount.
The Moon will be over 90% full and just west of Orion at the peak of the shower.
The next meteor shower is the Orionids on the night of October 21
The gibbous Moon, which is about 90 percent full on the night of the 21st, rises by mid-evening and soars high across the sky during the night. Its light will overpower all but the brightest of the meteors.
Keep in mind that the Orionids typically produce higher rates in the southern hemisphere.
Following mid-October, things begin picking up for people awake a few hours before sunrise as the Orionid meteor shower kicks in. Peaking on the night of October 21/22, this is another meteor shower that is produced by very old particles shed by Halley's Comet. Visual rates can reach 20 per hour for Northern Hemisphere observers and 40 per hour for Southern Hemisphere observers.
Regarding the ZHR:
Z.H.R. (Zenithal Hourly Rate): Are you paying attention? Good, 'coz this is where the science begins. The Zenithal Hourly Rate is the number of meteors you would expect to see at the time of maximum if the radiant was directly overhead and the observing conditions were perfect with a naked eye limiting magnitude of +6.5 - or at least that's the theory. In fact, even when these perfect conditions are met, the actual number of meteors an observer sees is usually at odds with the theoretical figure. So why do we use it? Beats me! Probably because everyone else uses it. If nothing else, it's a rough guide to how active a shower is. The higher the ZHR, the more chances you have of seeing a meteor
The RASC Observer's Handbook 2013 states a ZHR of 20 per hour for the 2013 Orionids on page 254.
Here’s the International Meteor Organization’s report on the 2011 Orionids:
The latest IMO video meteor analysis of the shower in 2011 (given as part of the October review in the February 2012 issue of the journal "WGN", 40:1, pp. 41-47, especially pp. 43 & 46) indicated the video peak was observed on the European night of October 23-24, although activity then was only marginally better than on several previous nights, beginning around October 20-21. This sort of protracted, if variable, maximum is relatively common for the Orionids, albeit the stronger peak happening as late as October 23-24 is unusual. The Organization's preliminary visual data, now updated but still available online at the address given in my October 24 posting above, suggested shower ZHRs were averaging roughly 25 ± 5 between October 20-21 and 23-24, coincident with the video findings, although the marginally highest ZHR, circa 33 ± 3 had occurred on October 21-22. This was based on relatively few reports, however.
http://www.astronomy-world.com/2013-sky-events.html (2013 ZHR = 20 per hour but does not mention how bright the Moon will be, unfortunately)
http://www.lovebigisland.com/hawaii-blog/hawaii-2013-astronomy-calendar/#orionids (effects of moonlight on this year’s Orionids)
Speaking for myself, I’ve never observed a rate beginning to approach 60 Orionids per hour during any of the times I’ve observed the Orionids from dark sites under favorable conditions.
* The showers from 2006 to 2009 produced higher than predicted rates.